COMPARATION MODEL USING HOLT-WINTERS, ETS, ARIMA, AND AUTO SARIMA FOR TIME SERIES OBJECT CRUDE OIL IN INDONESIA


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Crude oil is one of the factors that can determine the economic condition of a country, including Indonesia. Stability of supply and stable crude oil prices are essential in boosting economic growth and activities that require oil. Both the government, business entities, and investors desperately need accurate oil price predictions that can be used as material for policy planning and investment and can better describe the future economy. Therefore, this study aims to examine an overview of the development of Indonesian crude oil prices in 2016-2020, and determine the best model for predicting Indonesian crude oil prices. The forecasting methods used are Holt-Winters, ARIMA, ETS (Exponential Triple Smoothing) and AUTO SARIMA.

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Type: Energy
Release Date: Mar 21, 2021
Last Updated: Mar 21, 2021

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